For move-up and downsize buyers, the math is the headline. A qualifying new-build purchase between roughly $1 million and $1.5 million can produce combined federal-provincial relief approaching $130,000 — money that previously sat on the buyer's side of the closing statement and is now offset. That changes the comparison between a renovation in place and a move into a new build. It also pulls forward demand into the eligibility window.
For homeowners staying put, the long arc is about supply and fees. CMHC's research on development charges concludes that DCs are largely passed through to new-home buyers, and that when development charges rise, new-home prices rise — sometimes by more than the charge itself — while resale prices follow upward as sellers benchmark against new construction, as detailed in the CMHC report on who bears the cost of development charges. The mechanism runs in reverse too. Reducing development charges removes a cost input that homebuilders embed in their pricing, which softens new-build prices and, over time, the resale benchmark.
The fuller mechanics of how development charges show up in Ontario new-home prices are worth understanding before reading any move-up math, because the same fees that fund municipal infrastructure are also the lever that Bill C-26's funding is trying to relax.
That is what Bill C-26's conditionality is actually buying. Ontario's Development Charge Reduction Program, a cost-matched federal-provincial structure providing a combined $8.8 billion over 10 years, is the operational layer that puts the conditionality into practice. Applications opened June 1, 2026 with a tight June 19 deadline, and the timelines are designed to coincide with the enhanced HST relief to maximize the upfront cost relief for both builders and buyers. CMHC's broader supply-gap modelling reinforces the longer-run case: a more responsive housing supply could meaningfully reduce affordability ratios, including bringing Toronto's modelled homebuying cost-to-income ratio from a business-as-usual 79% down toward 59% with sustained supply growth.
The short-term and long-term cases are different cases. A move-up buyer in 2026 captures a discrete tax credit on a specific transaction. A homeowner staying put experiences a slower drift — softer new-build pricing, eventually softer resale benchmarks, and a different supply-demand profile in the corridor they would sell into.